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And our scenarios illustrated Democrats’ path to narrowly holding a majority. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5d7bd0207606e352c9d8019e/1600992440129-LOP7261S22ZX9A4U8EZQ/battleground_tracker_map.png Data Journalism - Battleground Tracker 2020 We take a state-by-state approach to understanding the U.S. election and tracking the race to 270. We measure what’s on voters' minds and provide detailed snapshots of each state throughout the campaign. Our statistical model combines survey data, Census data, and voter files to estimate every state in the country. More here. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5d7bd0207606e352c9d8019e/1585512308912-F0KHDDFI8GZ6GLH4DX9H/SUMMARY_MAP.jpg Data Journalism - Delegate Tracker We estimated support for 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, explained why voters felt the way they were, and translated support into delegates — the measure by which the nomination is won. We developed a statistical model to estimate opinion in each state and district and to simulate hypothetical delegate allocations. More here. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5d7bd0207606e352c9d8019e/1584911559947-EO1BRTWD2HQRQPIO0ID0/HOUSE_HIGHER_TURNOUT_SCENARIO.jpg Data Journalism - House Model 2018 We tracked the battle for control of the U.S. House in the 2018 midterm elections. We fielded national surveys with oversamples in competitive districts, and used multilevel modeling to estimate each party’s most likely seat share. We published ratings of each seat (Lean D, toss up, etc.), as well as scenarios, including the blue wave. More here. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5d7bd0207606e352c9d8019e/1584911925647-RQ9GDSANEHH4219SQK4A/partisanstability.jpg Data Journalism - U.S. Nation Tracker Launched right after Trump’s inauguration, in partnership with YouGov, this ongoing study tracks public opinion on the presidential administration, economy, race relations, and many other issues. Re-interviewing people enables longitudinal analyses, such as exploring partisan change and stability over time. More here. https://www.kabirkhanna.com/contact daily 0.75 2020-03-29 https://www.kabirkhanna.com/research daily 0.75 2025-09-19 https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5d7bd0207606e352c9d8019e/d445f7ea-2944-4bc6-bf04-b703e2f6b8d0/figure1hdsr Research - Forecasting Turnout Evaluation of leading models of turnout in the academic literature with colleagues at Harvard and MIT. Published in Harvard Data Science Review in 10/2024. Read more. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5d7bd0207606e352c9d8019e/1626721026215-EV8YS6UUQQ7BMGSND8F8/image-asset.png Research - An Evaluation of the 2020 Election Polls Figure 3 in AAPOR report https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5d7bd0207606e352c9d8019e/1584921878617-1W4DKYRR8RRNND78AVUC/RateEconBW.jpg Research - Do Facts Speak for Themselves? Causes and Consequences of Partisan Bias in Factual Beliefs Doctoral dissertation (completed May 2019). Read more. https://images.squarespace-cdn.com/content/v1/5d7bd0207606e352c9d8019e/1584902492165-HPWAIDPSVAI432REZZB4/motivatedresponding.png Research - Motivated Responding in Studies of Factual Learning Political Behavior, with Gaurav Sood (2017). 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